Every season in fantasy football there are players who go from being situational plays and spot starters to weekly must-starts and fantasy stars. Those breakout seasons are not always followed by another strong performance. Predicting players who will continue to ascend after their breakout season is not an exact science — but there are factors that allow you to make more informed decisions. Like the stock market, knowing when to pass on a guy who will likely regress to a previous form can keep you from overreaching. Similarly, understanding when to buy a stock that is continuing to appreciate will yield big dividends.
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There were quite a few players who saw their stock soar last season and vaulted them to new levels in the eyes of fantasy managers. The question is: does this represent a new level of consistent performance or was it success that they would be fortunate to ever duplicate again? Let’s take a look at the top two breakout fantasy stars of 2022 at each position and see if 2023 holds promise for another spectacular season.
Quarterbacks
Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (FACT)
Hurts is a dual-threat quarterback who can score points with his arm and his legs. He is coming off a season in which he averaged 25.6 fantasy points per game, which landed him at QB1. In addition to DeVonta Smith, A.J. Brown, and Dallas Goedert, the Eagles made the backfield even more explosive than it was last season — they traded for D’Andre Swift, who is a home run hitter, and signed Rashaad Penny. Defenses must continue to focus on all of those weapons while Hurts is just another year comfortable in this dynamic Eagles offense.
There will be no regression from the MVP runner up; in fact look for his touchdown passing numbers to increase while his rushing touchdowns will likely remain consistent.
Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (FACT)
Lawrence is talented and showed significant improvement in his second season in the NFL. He became a must-start in many fantasy platforms.
He’s now surrounded by a better supporting cast, as Calvin Ridley is added to a mix of already-talented receivers. Lawrence’s chemistry with Travis Etienne in the backfield is palpable. Doug Pederson has once again proven that he has the magic touch with young quarterbacks. Lawrence’s second season was such a jump from his 2021 campaign because he was more decisive as a passer and he remembered that he was a legitimate running threat with the ball. 584 passing attempts in 2022 gave Lawrence a chance to put up major numbers and he rewarded fantasy owners with great performances. There should be more of the same in 2023.
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Running backs
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders (FLUKE)
Josh Jacobs is a talented running back who had an absolutely monstrous 2022. His 1,653 yards and 12 touchdowns landed him first in total PPR fantasy points at the position and second only to Derrick Henry with 16.2 fantasy points per game. Despite those numbers, there are a few reasons why he may not be as effective in 2023. Jacobs is currently holding out in a contract dispute with the Raiders. This could lead to him missing training camp and that would hurt his preparation for the regular season. He is also coming off a season where he had 340 rushing attempts and we know most backs not named Derrick Henry suffer physical setbacks the next season when they carry the ball that many times. Even when he reports, Jacobs could find himself in a running back by committee, as the Raiders have added more talent at the position this offseason. Mix that with improvements in the passing game and there just not be as many chances for Jacobs as there were in 2022.
Kenneth Walker III, Seattle Seahawks (FLUKE)
Walker had a breakout rookie season in 2022, rushing for 1,161 yards and 11 touchdowns. But despite all of that success, the Seahawks still drafted Zach Charbonnet in the second round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Why would they do that? Charbonnet is a talented running back, and he could eat into Walker’s carries when the season begins.
Another thing that may hinder Walker’s production in 2023 is the emergence of Geno Smith in this Seahawks passing offense. They have two receivers who are Pro Bowl caliber. Smith threw the ball 572 times last season and another year in the system means he will likely throw even more and deprive Walker of the carries he needs to be elite. Overall, I think he is still a talented running back who could have a productive season in 2023. But I think there are some reasons to be cautious about drafting him as an early-round pick.
Wide receiver
A.J. Brown, Philadelphia Eagles (FACT)
There were a lot of people who thought Brown was primed for a massive season in 2022. As the Eagles’ WR1, he finished as WR4 in fantasy. When you mix freakishly big and athletic with an offense that would be willing to throw more than his old team it was bound to unlock his full potential as a pass catcher. He did just that, finishing 8th in points per game (15.0). There is no reason to believe that Brown has hit his zenith. He is in his prime and will be entering his second season in this offense that has weapons everywhere. Defenders cannot key on him or try to commit themselves to limiting his effectiveness for fear that one of those other weapons will expose their overcompensation.
Brown’s size and athleticism helps him create an expansive catch radius. That allows him to haul in passes even if they are not precise. That creates confidence for a quarterback to throw higher risk passes his way. In the red zone the high-ball fade and back-shoulder fades become quick audible options at the line of scrimmage regardless of the coverage. The result? More targets.
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DeVonta Smith, Philadelphia Eagles (FACT)
Smith was good in 2021 but with the emergence of Hurts and the arrival of Brown he was able to play a role that fit him much better in 2022. The results of him being utilized as an intermediate-level pass reception monster were fantastic. If Brown was WR1, then Smith was WR1a — his 95 receptions for 1,196 yards and seven touchdowns placed him among the elites in fantasy football. In 2023, fantasy owners can expect even more fireworks as the offense gets more explosive. Smith’s numbers will be helped by both Brown and Hurts taking the next step in their development and comfort in this Eagles offense. Brown will draw every team’s CB1 and Hurts’ running ability will keep defenses focused on him and not on Smith. Even tight end Dallas Goedert will draw the attention of some safeties and linebackers. Smith will likely be able to operate without much attention being paid until it is too late and he’s already gutted someone for big stats.
Even though Smith operated well as an X before Brown’s arrival, his full potential is now unlocked. His speed and agility can be used to run option routes that are impossible for defenses to predict or counter. He is also the hot route when the defense blitzes. That equates to easy pitch and catch opportunities with room for yards after the catch.
Tight end
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (FLUKE)
Engram had a terrific rookie season for the Giants in 2017, catching 63 passes for 722 yards and six touchdowns. But then he spent the next few years failing to live up to expectations. He was inconsistent, dropped passes, and was often injured. In 2022, Engram finally broke out. He signed with the Jaguars and caught 73 passes for 766 yards and four touchdowns.
Jacksonville afforded Engram the opportunity to utilize his athleticism to create matchup problems for defenses. The Jaguars utilized him on routes where he could catch the ball on the move and run away from linebackers and safeties that he had out-leveraged. The success of the run game and utilization of play action created more opportunities for him in space. That is why his YAC was second only to Travis Kelce among all tight ends.
Because the tight end market is so scarce for consistent production you want to believe that Engram can duplicate his 2022 performance but there are a few reasons why he may not. The first reason is he has never put back to back quality seasons since he entered the NFL. It is hard to say he will this year. Another thing to consider is that as good as Trevor Lawrence is at passing the football, there’s only one football. With the addition of Calvin Ridley to an already crowded and talented group of receivers. It may be difficult for Engram to get targets.
Pat Freiermuth Pittsburgh Steelers (FACT)
The Steelers love a good tight end. Freiermuth had a promising rookie season, catching 60 passes for 497 yards and seven touchdowns. Last season, his touchdown production dipped, but he still drew 98 targets and finished with 63 catches for 732 yards. That is 235 more yards on only three more receptions. The potential for consistent big play performances is there in spades. The former second-round draft pick from Penn State offers a solid fantasy floor as a key component of the Pittsburgh passing game and because he can block as well, it is more difficult for defenses to know when he is going out on a pass or attacking a defender in the run game. That increases his value as a red zone threat. If Kenny Pickett can make the jump in his second year, Freiermuth’s overall production could skyrocket.
(Top photo: Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
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